Nigeria’s Economic Reforms Working, But Poverty Increasing – IMF

“Strong reforms over the past three years have yielded improved macroeconomic outcomes and built resilience,” the IMF said after its annual review of Nigeria’s economy. “Still, conditions for many Nigerians remain

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) says reforms introduced by President Bola Tinubu’s administration have strengthened Nigeria’s economy, but warned that poverty continues to worsen, with more than 60 percent of Nigerians now living below the poverty line.

Since taking office just over three years ago, Tinubu has removed the long-standing fuel subsidy, liberalised the naira exchange rate and overhauled the tax system. While economists have largely welcomed the reforms, poverty rose to 63 percent of the population by the end of 2025, according to the IMF. More than 27 million people also faced food insecurity during the year.

“Strong reforms over the past three years have yielded improved macroeconomic outcomes and built resilience,” the IMF said after its annual review of Nigeria’s economy. “Still, conditions for many Nigerians remain difficult.”

Poverty has been increasing for years in Africa’s most populous country. The World Bank reported that about 61 percent of Nigerians were living in poverty, up from 40 percent in 2019, noting that three-quarters of the increase occurred before Tinubu took office in 2023.

The IMF also cited widespread insecurity, particularly in northern farming regions, as a threat to livelihoods and economic activity.

Inflation accelerated to 15.7 percent in April, a five-month high, with analysts linking the rise partly to higher fuel prices driven by the ongoing war in the Middle East.

Economic growth is projected to reach 4.1 percent this year, up from 4 percent in 2025. However, the IMF warned that higher food, fertiliser and fuel costs could increase government revenues as Africa’s largest oil producer while also worsening inflation, poverty and food insecurity among vulnerable households.

Nigeria is due to hold elections in January, with Tinubu seeking a second term in office.