UAE Exits OPEC In Major Blow To Global Oil Alliance Amid Gulf Tensions

By Folarin Adeyemi Aluko

The United Arab Emirates has announced its decision to leave the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, marking one of the most significant shake-ups in the global oil market in recent years.

The move, confirmed on Tuesday, comes at a time of growing instability in the Middle East following the ongoing Iran conflict and escalating tensions around energy supplies. Analysts say the departure of the UAE  one of OPEC’s largest oil producers could weaken the group’s influence over global crude prices and deepen divisions among Gulf powers.

The UAE’s withdrawal is expected to officially take effect on May 1, ending decades of membership in the oil alliance that has long coordinated production levels among major exporters.

Speaking after the announcement, UAE Energy Minister Suhail Mohamed al-Mazrouei said the decision followed a strategic review of the country’s long-term energy policies and future production goals.

According to him, the UAE believes global demand for energy will continue to rise significantly in the coming years, and leaving OPEC would give the country greater flexibility to expand oil production without being restricted by the organisation’s quota system.

The decision immediately rattled international energy markets, although oil prices later trimmed gains as traders assessed the broader impact. Market experts believe the UAE’s exit could eventually lead to increased competition among Gulf producers, especially once regional export routes stabilise.

The development comes amid severe disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz one of the world’s most critical oil shipping lanes located between Iran and Oman. The waterway normally handles nearly one-fifth of global crude oil and liquefied natural gas shipments.

However, the ongoing Iran conflict and repeated threats against oil tankers have complicated exports for Gulf nations. Several producers have struggled to move supplies through the region, forcing production cuts and affecting global supply chains.

The International Energy Agency recently reported that OPEC+’s share of global oil production has already fallen sharply due to disruptions caused by the conflict. Analysts now expect the figure to decline further following the UAE’s departure.

Experts say the move could also strengthen the position of Donald Trump, who has repeatedly criticised OPEC over oil pricing policies. Trump has long accused the organisation of artificially inflating global energy prices while relying on American military support for regional security.

Economic analysts believe the UAE’s exit could benefit oil-consuming nations if it leads to higher production levels and lower crude prices in the future.

Energy strategist Jorge Leon of Rystad noted that the UAE is one of the few Gulf producers with enough spare production capacity to rapidly increase oil output. Outside OPEC restrictions, the country could aggressively pursue a larger share of the global market.

The decision has also drawn attention to the growing rivalry between the UAE and Saudi Arabia, traditionally OPEC’s dominant power. Once close allies, Abu Dhabi and Riyadh have increasingly disagreed on oil strategy, regional politics and economic competition.

In recent years, the UAE has expanded its global influence through stronger ties with the United States and Israel, particularly following the 2020 Abraham Accords. The country has positioned itself as a major financial, diplomatic and commercial hub in the Middle East.

Meanwhile, Gulf leaders gathered in Saudi Arabia on Tuesday for emergency talks focused on regional security concerns following continued missile and drone attacks linked to the Iran conflict.

Observers warn that the UAE’s exit from OPEC may signal broader fractures within the Gulf alliance at a time when global energy markets are already under pressure from war, political uncertainty and rising demand.