Egypt’s Inflation Expected to Rise to 15.1% in June Amid Higher Food Prices

CAIRO, Egypt  Egypt’s annual urban inflation rate is expected to increase to 15.1% in June, up from 14.6% in May, according to a Reuters survey of economists, as rising food prices and unfavourable base effects continue to put pressure on consumer prices.

The Reuters poll, which surveyed 17 analysts, projected inflation to range between 14.5% and 16.1%, with the median estimate settling at 15.1%.

The expected increase comes ahead of the release of official inflation figures by Egypt’s Central Agency for Public Mobilisation and Statistics (CAPMAS) on Thursday, the same day the Central Bank of Egypt’s Monetary Policy Committee is scheduled to announce its latest interest rate decision.

Food Prices Drive Inflation Higher

Economists say the rise in inflation is largely being driven by stronger food prices, even as the impact of earlier fuel price increases and currency depreciation linked to regional tensions begins to fade.

James Swanston, an economist at Barclays, expects inflation to continue rising over the coming months, predicting it could exceed 19% during the third quarter of the year.

Similarly, Daniel Richards of Emirates NBD believes inflation will continue to climb after easing over the previous two months, forecasting it could reach around 17% in July and August.

Some Analysts Expect a More Moderate Increase

Not all economists expect inflation to rise sharply.

Heba Monir of HC Securities projects inflation at 14.7%, citing falling poultry prices and relatively stable vegetable prices as factors helping to ease pressure on household spending.

Esraa Ahmed of Thndr also noted that cooling food prices could partially offset the effects of statistical base changes.

Lower Energy Prices May Ease Future Inflation

Analysts at Goldman Sachs believe the risks of a significant inflation surge have reduced as global energy prices continue to moderate following recent diplomatic progress between the United States and Iran.

Capital Economics also pointed to Egypt’s latest staff-level agreement with the International Monetary Fund (IMF), noting that the Fund praised the country’s economic policy response during the recent regional crisis.

Central Bank Decision in Focus

Investors will now turn their attention to Thursday’s Monetary Policy Committee meeting, where policymakers are expected to weigh persistent inflationary pressures against efforts to support economic growth.

Headline inflation had climbed to 15.2% in March, its highest level since May 2025, before easing to 14.6% in May, the lowest reading since February.

Meanwhile, analysts also expect core inflation, which excludes volatile items such as food and fuel, to edge up to 14.4% in June, compared with 13.8% in May.